Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 1.461665 1.516056 1.572225 1.634743 1.702602 1.774278 1.856038
2025-12-14 1.383242 1.454818 1.530936 1.618422 1.716858 1.825001 1.953947
2025-12-21 1.322397 1.404834 1.494402 1.599857 1.721860 1.860187 2.031333
2025-12-28 1.290815 1.383718 1.486646 1.610583 1.757838 1.930061 2.151351
2026-01-04 1.269182 1.371632 1.487170 1.629225 1.802342 2.011074 2.289780
2026-01-11 1.237443 1.345748 1.469589 1.624392 1.816960 2.055103 2.383768
2026-01-18 1.212720 1.326535 1.458363 1.625749 1.838134 2.107436 2.491837
2026-01-25 1.176743 1.292336 1.427425 1.600845 1.824018 2.112196 2.534038
2026-02-01 1.152173 1.270724 1.410591 1.592283 1.829734 2.142614 2.613956
2026-02-08 1.128487 1.249224 1.392865 1.581434 1.831321 2.166753 2.685917
2026-02-15 1.106350 1.228802 1.375586 1.570134 1.831270 2.187951 2.754522
2026-02-22 1.092326 1.217784 1.369460 1.572706 1.849593 2.235611 2.868336
2026-03-01 1.063495 1.188136 1.339550 1.543709 1.824212 2.219960 2.880868
2026-03-08 1.045525 1.171492 1.325548 1.535096 1.826511 2.244781 2.962800
2026-03-15 1.026780 1.153345 1.309019 1.522358 1.822161 2.259003 3.027663
2026-03-22 1.019949 1.149941 1.311206 1.534735 1.853948 2.330160 3.202119
2026-03-29 1.016184 1.150215 1.318020 1.553475 1.895677 2.419809 3.424941
2026-04-05 1.003729 1.139006 1.309375 1.550350 1.904672 2.457114 3.551412
2026-04-12 0.993984 1.131007 1.304671 1.552435 1.921389 2.508116 3.714209
2026-04-19 0.975210 1.110917 1.283376 1.530329 1.900089 2.493176 3.732682
2026-04-26 0.962890 1.098961 1.272652 1.522896 1.901023 2.516413 3.839773
2026-05-03 0.950240 1.086310 1.260675 1.513243 1.897973 2.532311 3.932588
2026-05-10 0.937901 1.073826 1.248627 1.503086 1.893620 2.545461 4.021118